Friday, February 28, 2020

The Case for Bernie Sanders


People generally vote for 2 reasons:

Some people vote FOR a candidate.

Some vote AGAINST a candidate. 

Often, it's a combination of both.


BEING AGAINST DONALD TRUMP IS NOT ENOUGH TO WIN 
Come November, Democrats need a candidate who voters are resoundingly FOR.  One who excites a large segment of voters.  Better still, one who excites a segment of voters that typically don't turn out to vote in high numbers.  Barack Obama did that in 2008 and in 2012.  Hillary Clinton failed to do that in 2016.  We know that result.

The outcome of this election is going to come down to one thing:  turnout.  The biggest driver of turnout is enthusiasm.  There is no Democratic candidate in 2020 that exudes more excitement and enthusiasm than Bernie Sanders.  That is evidenced by the thousands -- even tens of thousands -- of supporters cheering him on at his events.  It's evidenced by the number of donors to his campaign.  And it's evidenced by the amount of money he has raised.  No other Democratic candidate comes close.


MOTIVATION AND ENTHUSIASM ARE KEY
The motivation to vote AGAINST Donald Trump this November is significant, probably higher than at any time in recent history.  But outside of Bernie Sanders, the FOR vote on the Democratic side is seriously lacking.  Democrats cannot win without a solid FOR vote.  If you're in doubt, look back to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

There are several demographic groups which traditionally vote in very low numbers.  They include young people, the black community and the Hispanic/Latino community.  In order to win in November, Democrats will need to motivate those groups to vote in large numbers, and they only tend to turn out in sufficient numbers if they are engaged.  Bernie engages the young in greater numbers than seen at any time in recent memory.  He does extremely well with Hispanic/Latino voters, as we saw in Nevada.  He still needs to do better at engaging the black community.  Fortunately, his very long and well documented history of standing up for desegregation and equal rights lends him credibility with that community.  How well he can motivate them between now and November remains to be seen.  But the fundamental requirements to be able to accomplish that are there.


VULNERABILITIES
Every one of the Democratic candidates has vulnerabilities.  The fears some people have that Bernie can't be elected are real, but can be overcome.  His two biggest vulnerabilities are the false impression that he is a Socialist (rather than a Democratic Socialist) and the belief that he will spend money recklessly.  Both of these can be addressed and overcome with clearer messaging in the general election against Donald Trump.  And they will need to be.


AMERICA'S VIEWS ARE IN SYNC WITH BERNIE'S BELIEFS
Americans of all political beliefs love the goals of Bernie's policies:  a $15 minimum wage;  health insurance for all; lowering prescription drug prices; affordable education;  fair and equitable taxation;  protecting our land, water and air; acting to address global warming;  fair immigration policies;  preservation of Social Security;  investing in renewable energy rather than fossil fuels;  shifting spending away from endless foreign wars and toward domestic infrastructure;  ending voter suppression;  banning the sale of assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition;  requiring background checks for gun buyers;  supporting safe abortions and a woman's right to make that choice.  Every one of these are widely held popular views and goals.


BERNIE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF HISTORY
Bernie has been on the right side of the fight for decades:  standing up for civil rights, gay rights, women's rights and voter rights long before it was "safe" to do so.  Promoting fairness, equality, opportunity, fair wages, fair taxation, reduced military intervention and better educational opportunities for all.  Taking a stand on environmental issues and opposing the folly of the Iran War.  His passion for fairness, righteousness and justice is long-term and unwavering.


BERNIE IS AUTHENTIC
The words most commonly used to describe Bernie are: authentic; ethical; moral;  honest;  integrity;  honorable; consistent;  fair-minded;  genuine  -- these traits and perceptions are virtually unknown in the world of politics and they are the polar opposite of how people view Donald Trump and the GOP.  That's part of what makes Bernie such a strong opponent and a fundamental threat to Trump.


BERNIE IS THE ANTITHESIS OF DONALD TRUMP 
When the lies and misinformation come fast and furious in the weeks leading up to election day,  No one will be immune to the attacks.  Not Bernie.  Not Pete.  Not Bloomberg.  Not Biden.  Not Elizabeth.  The overriding factor in how the lies are perceived will depend on who voters believe.  It will be the candidate's character that will make the difference as to whether the false charges stick or not.  Bernie's reputation for honesty and his moral character, as well as his credibility, will help him survive and overcome those attacks better than most others. 

Even though Bernie's self-avowed Social Democracy scares some people, the enthusiasm he generates with traditional non-voters more than offsets that. And, while it's possible to address and overcome misinterpretations of what "Social Democracy" means, you can't manufacture enthusiasm where it doesn't actually exist.  Winning will absolutely require the participation of traditional non-voters in November to defeat Trump.  There is no other candidate who enthuses those groups the way Bernie does.

It would also be a miscalculation to dismiss the fact that there is an unexpected overlap between Bernie supporters and some Trump supporters.  Bernie will likely peel away some of Trump's support, which other candidates won't, further making Bernie one of Trump's most serious and dangerous opponents. 

The bottom line is that Americans want and need solutions to runaway healthcare costs;  exorbitant drug prices;  inhumane immigration policies; crushing student loan debt;  global warming;  gun violence;  income inequality; and more.  Not a single one of those issues is a part of the Republican agenda. Not one.  Bernie isn't a newcomer to any of those issues.  He's been fighting for those causes for decades. 

Bernie recently said “When my family cares about your family, and your family cares about my family, we all do better.”  One of his core campaign messages is "Not me. Us." 

Could there possibly be a more uniting message and a starker contrast with the current occupant of The White House?