People
generally vote for 2 reasons:
Some
people vote FOR a candidate.
Some
vote AGAINST a candidate.
Often,
it's a combination of both.
BEING AGAINST DONALD TRUMP IS NOT ENOUGH TO WIN
Come
November, Democrats need a candidate who voters are resoundingly FOR. One who excites a large segment of
voters. Better still, one who excites a
segment of voters that typically don't turn out to vote in high numbers. Barack Obama did that in 2008 and in 2012. Hillary Clinton failed to do that in 2016. We know that result.
The
outcome of this election is going to come down to one thing: turnout. The biggest driver of turnout is
enthusiasm. There is no Democratic
candidate in 2020 that exudes more excitement and enthusiasm than Bernie
Sanders. That is evidenced by the thousands
-- even tens of thousands -- of supporters cheering him on at his events. It's evidenced by the number of donors to his
campaign. And it's evidenced by the
amount of money he has raised. No other
Democratic candidate comes close.
MOTIVATION AND ENTHUSIASM ARE KEY
The
motivation to vote AGAINST Donald Trump this November is significant, probably
higher than at any time in recent history.
But outside of Bernie Sanders, the FOR vote on the Democratic side is seriously
lacking. Democrats cannot win without a
solid FOR vote. If you're in doubt, look
back to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
There
are several demographic groups which traditionally vote in very low numbers. They include young people, the black
community and the Hispanic/Latino community. In order to win in November, Democrats will
need to motivate those groups to vote in large numbers, and they only tend to turn
out in sufficient numbers if they are engaged.
Bernie engages the young in greater numbers than seen at any time in
recent memory. He does extremely well with
Hispanic/Latino voters, as we saw in Nevada.
He still needs to do better at engaging the black community. Fortunately, his very long and well
documented history of standing up for desegregation and equal rights lends him credibility
with that community. How well he can
motivate them between now and November remains to be seen. But the fundamental requirements to be able to
accomplish that are there.
VULNERABILITIES
Every
one of the Democratic candidates has vulnerabilities. The fears some people have that Bernie can't
be elected are real, but can be overcome.
His two biggest vulnerabilities are the false impression that he is a Socialist
(rather than a Democratic Socialist) and the belief that he will spend money
recklessly. Both of these can be addressed
and overcome with clearer messaging in the general election against Donald
Trump. And they will need to be.
AMERICA'S VIEWS ARE IN SYNC WITH
BERNIE'S BELIEFS
Americans
of all political beliefs love the goals of Bernie's policies: a $15 minimum wage; health insurance for all; lowering prescription drug prices; affordable education;
fair and equitable taxation; protecting our land, water and air; acting to address global warming; fair immigration policies; preservation of Social Security; investing in renewable energy rather than
fossil fuels; shifting spending away from
endless foreign wars and toward domestic infrastructure; ending voter suppression; banning the sale of assault weapons and high-capacity
ammunition; requiring background checks
for gun buyers; supporting safe
abortions and a woman's right to make that choice. Every one of these are widely held popular views
and goals.
BERNIE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF HISTORY
Bernie
has been on the right side of the fight for decades: standing up for civil rights, gay rights, women's
rights and voter rights long before it was "safe" to do so. Promoting fairness, equality, opportunity,
fair wages, fair taxation, reduced military intervention and better educational
opportunities for all. Taking a stand on
environmental issues and opposing the folly of the Iran War. His passion for fairness, righteousness and
justice is long-term and unwavering.
BERNIE IS AUTHENTIC
The
words most commonly used to describe Bernie are: authentic; ethical; moral; honest;
integrity; honorable; consistent; fair-minded; genuine
-- these traits and perceptions
are virtually unknown in the world of politics and they are the polar opposite
of how people view Donald Trump and the GOP.
That's part of what makes Bernie such a strong opponent and a fundamental
threat to Trump.
BERNIE IS THE ANTITHESIS OF DONALD TRUMP
When
the lies and misinformation come fast and furious in the weeks leading up to
election day, No one will be immune to
the attacks. Not Bernie. Not Pete.
Not Bloomberg. Not Biden. Not Elizabeth. The
overriding factor in how the lies are perceived will depend on who voters believe. It will be the candidate's character that
will make the difference as to whether the false charges stick or not. Bernie's reputation for honesty and his moral
character, as well as his credibility, will help him survive and overcome those
attacks better than most others.
Even
though Bernie's self-avowed Social Democracy scares some people, the enthusiasm
he generates with traditional non-voters more than offsets that. And, while it's possible to address and
overcome misinterpretations of what "Social Democracy" means, you
can't manufacture enthusiasm where it doesn't actually exist. Winning will absolutely require the
participation of traditional non-voters in November to defeat Trump. There is no other candidate who enthuses those
groups the way Bernie does.
It
would also be a miscalculation to dismiss the fact that there is an unexpected overlap
between Bernie supporters and some Trump supporters. Bernie will likely peel away some of Trump's support,
which other candidates won't, further making Bernie one of Trump's most serious
and dangerous opponents.
The
bottom line is that Americans want and need solutions to runaway healthcare
costs; exorbitant drug prices; inhumane immigration policies; crushing student loan debt; global warming; gun violence; income inequality; and more.
Not a single one of those issues is a part of the Republican agenda. Not one.
Bernie isn't a newcomer to any of those issues. He's been fighting for those causes for
decades.
Bernie
recently said “When my family cares about your family, and your family cares
about my family, we all do better.” One
of his core campaign messages is "Not me. Us."
Could
there possibly be a more uniting message and a starker contrast with the
current occupant of The White House?
